The FT Looked Where the Light Was, Not Where the Signal Lived
In late 2025, the Financial Times (November 29, 2025) reported that China’s jewellery retailers were struggling as the global gold price broke new records. The FT mistook a retail slowdown for a demand slowdown. It looked at jewellery because jewellery is visible. But the real driver of the gold breakout moved elsewhere: into bars, coins, and disciplined household hedging. Jewellery contraction is not demand destruction; it is demand migration.
Choreography — The Investment Engine Beneath the Retail Story
While jewellery weakened, bar and coin demand surged. Global retail investment logged four consecutive quarters above 300 tonnes. According to data from the World Gold Council, Q1 2025 alone saw global bar and coin demand hit 325 tonnes (15% above the five-year average), with Q3 2025 hitting 316 tonnes. China drove much of this increase, posting its second-highest quarter ever for retail investment demand in Q1 2025. ETFs added another 222 tonnes, reflecting a synchronized belief premium.
Field — China’s Household Hedge: Bars Replace Ornaments
China’s households are turning toward gold with discipline. As the local RMB gold price rose nearly 28% by November 2024 (making gold the best performing asset in China that year), ornaments became unaffordable luxuries. But bars and coins became affordable hedges. This was economic self-defense: households facing uncertain futures cut discretionary spending and reallocated savings into liquid hard assets.
- Jewellery is a cost. Bars are a balance sheet. The FT saw the cost. It missed the balance sheet.
Gold ornaments express identity; gold bars express caution.
Field — The Crypto Ban That Redirected a Nation’s Hedge
One of the least discussed drivers is Beijing’s prohibition of crypto trading and stablecoins. With the crypto channel sealed, the average household lost access to a core hedging instrument. For most of the population, gold bars became the substitute—liquid, approved, and psychologically familiar.
When the state closes one hedge, disciplined households reinforce another.
Consumer Layer — Households Are More Disciplined Than the State
While China’s government expands debt to stabilize GDP optics, households reduce risk exposure. The divergence is structural:
- The State: Inflates debt, stabilizes GDP optics, and borrows aggressively.
- The Households: Cut consumption, avoid leverage, and accumulate hard assets.
The state is reckless; households are disciplined.
Investor Layer — Retail Belief Becomes Market Structure
Gold’s breakout above $4,000 was not driven by scarcity (mine supply hit a record 976.6 tonnes). It was driven by synchronized retail investment: bar and coin demand, ETF inflows, and a belief premium anchored in household discipline.
- The Rally Reflection: The rally reflected rising systemic distrust at the household level, not rising strategic accumulation at the state level.
Retail hedging created sovereign-scale signals.
Conclusion
The FT misframed the gold rally because it measured the wrong object. The real signal is that households shifted from discretionary gold to defensive gold. The rally was driven not by adornment but by caution—not by wealth display but by wealth protection. In 2025, gold’s signal is not luxury—it is discipline.