Signal — This Isn’t Irrational. It’s the New Order.
In 2025, Kraken Technologies—the software platform powering Octopus Energy—reached a projected $15 billion valuation, overtaking Octopus’s own valuation of roughly £10 billion ($12.2 billion). On paper, this looks absurd. Octopus owns the customers, the licenses, the call centres, and the regulated infrastructure. Kraken owns the code—the orchestration layer that coordinates the system. Yet capital now rewards choreography, not custody.
Scalability Reigned Supreme.
Kraken powers more than 70 million energy accounts across regions where Octopus itself does not operate. Its architecture is modular, exportable, and endlessly replicable. Octopus expands through wires, permits, and regulators. Kraken expands through software updates. In the old economy, scale came from physical networks. In 2025, scale is minted through abstraction—protocols that multiply without friction.
Revenue Quality Reverses the Institutional Hierarchy.
Octopus earns low-margin income from electricity retail, a business defined by regulation, location, and vulnerability to wholesale price movements. Kraken earns recurring platform fees, grid-optimization revenue, and licensing income that requires almost no incremental cost. Infrastructure used to be the moat. Today, the moat is narrative liquidity—the perception that software produces margin while institutions absorb friction. Octopus carries capex. Kraken carries belief.
Narrative Transforms The Code.
Kraken is not branded as a billing engine. It is presented as climate-tech infrastructure—managing demand response, orchestrating grid liquidity, and optimizing renewable flows. Investors aren’t buying its present function. They are buying its narrative: energy redemption through software. In this frame, Kraken does not need to own the grid. It owns the story that the grid itself can be orchestrated.
The Broader Inversion: From Custody to Choreography.
Kraken’s valuation is part of a larger pattern. Banking once rewarded deposit custody, but now payment platforms like Stripe dominate the premium. Retail giants own shelves and logistics, yet Shopify earns richer multiples by orchestrating checkout and flow. Defense firms build hardware, yet data-fusion platforms like Palantir shape strategic decisions. Asset managers custody trillions, yet BlackRock’s Aladdin governs risk optics across the industry. Everywhere, value migrates from the institution that owns the asset to the protocol that orchestrates the system.
Citizen Blindness: The Visible Institution vs. the Invisible Power.
The public still believes stability comes from the visible: branches, grids, warehouses, newsrooms. But markets price the invisible: settlement engines, orchestration layers, APIs, liquidity flows. Citizens believe buildings confer trust. Markets believe code governs redemption. The rupture is symbolic—the gap between what society thinks produces stability and what actually underwrites it. When a protocol freezes redemption or halts orchestration, the inversion becomes visible. The gap between public belief and market belief is the valuation spread.
Closing Frame.
Kraken surpassing Octopus is not an anomaly. It is a map of where valuation travels next. Capital has shifted allegiance from balance sheets to orchestration layers, from ownership to flow, from the physical to the programmable. The choreography has changed hands. And markets have already priced the transfer.